According to Shada, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance has launched its largest-ever financing initiative under the banner of Megaproject Twenty. Minister of Economy Seyed Ali Madanizadeh described the plan as “one of several flagship megaprojects” of the ministry, stressing that it is intended to fill the historic gap in productive investment that has long left Iran trapped in a cycle of stagflation.
More than an operational program, the initiative embodies the concept of resilience. Madanizadeh has repeatedly argued that under crippling sanctions, Iran must rely on domestic innovation, public participation, and smart diplomacy to transform external pressures into opportunities for growth. At a recent capital market conference, he identified sanctions and regional instability as the core drivers of economic fragility, positioning Project Twenty as a tool to break this vulnerability, turning sanctions from a paralyzing constraint into a catalyst for transformation.
The chronic investment deficit
Iran’s economy has suffered for years from insufficient investment in large-scale, growth-driving projects. The IMF’s October 2025 report projected real GDP growth of just 0.6% for the year, far below the regional average of 3.9%. The shortfall reflects declining oil output, inflation exceeding 43%, and collapsing foreign direct investment (FDI), which fell to under $1.4 billion in 2023.While many developing economies launched multibillion-dollar projects over the past decade, Iran-constrained by international sanctions, completed virtually none. The result has been a steady erosion of investment: gross capital formation fell from 25% of GDP in the early 2010s to about 18% in 2025. FDI plunged from $4.3 billion in 2011 to $1.5 billion in 2022, an 80% decline. Youth unemployment, projected by the IMF at 9.5% in 2025, has compounded the strain. This fragility has left Iran highly exposed to external shocks such as oil price volatility, oil accounts for 40% of government revenues, and renewed U.S. sanctions in 2025.
Madanizadeh has described this vulnerability as the product of both domestic imbalances, such as banking sector weaknesses, and external pressures. Project Twenty is designed to address precisely this structural wound: channeling domestic and foreign resources into high-return, foreign currency–earning projects while diversifying the economy to reduce exposure to shocks.
Why now?
Launched within the first 100 days of Iran’s 14th government, Project Twenty aims to deliver at least 20 major national projects with the following characteristics:
• Annual foreign currency earnings of at least $500 million per project, in line with the Seventh Development Plan.
• Significant profitability and multiplier effects across other sectors.
• Full alignment with the Seventh Plan’s priorities, including knowledge-based industries and non-oil exports.
These projects are directly tied to the resilience agenda. With sanctions blocking access to global financial markets, Project Twenty leverages domestic capacities, such as public savings and capital markets, and regional partnerships, including with BRICS, to strengthen economic durability. In this framework, sanctions are reframed from “threats” into “opportunities for innovation.”
Financing model
The Ministry of Economy is no longer relying on oil revenues or costly bank loans. Instead, Project Twenty employs a layered financing model consistent with the “economy for all”
framework:
• Mobilizing public resources through foreign currency and rial-denominated project funds, alongside the issuance of government-backed Murabahah (meaning profit) bonds insured by export credit agencies. This reduces risk for ordinary investors and expands participation to as much as 50% of the capital market.
• Engaging large domestic private-sector players with incentives such as 10-year tax exemptions for strategic projects and access to low-interest credit.
• Deploying active economic diplomacy to stabilize currency and inflation dynamics. By prioritizing foreign currency-earning projects, the initiative reduces oil dependency and fosters non-inflationary growth.